Why Davis didn’t feel the subprime squeeze
Many homes in foreclosure today were purchased with subprime financing around 2005 - promoted, in some cases, by home builders who were eager to sell their product and relied on new methods of financing to do so.
This is part of the reason so many subprime-related foreclosures are found in areas like Elk Grove and Natomas that saw a lot of building around 2005, and so few subprime-related foreclosures are in Davis, where there were no major new subdivisions at the time.
Some observers think the two-year tide of subprime-related foreclosures has peaked, and most of the faltering subprime loans will have cycled through the financial system by the end of this year.
But real estate experts are concerned that a second category of mortgages, called ‘Alternative-A’ or ‘Alt-A’ mortgages, could send a new wave of homes into foreclosure in coming months. The New York Times, in a front-page story on Aug. 4, reported that the percentage of Alt-A mortgages in arrears ‘quadrupled to 12 percent in April,’ compared to a year earlier.
Herb Cross, who manages the Lyon Real Estate offices in Davis, Woodland and West Sacramento, described the difference between subprime and Alt-A.
‘A subprime mortgage is one that’s risky,’ he says. ‘Those kinds of mortgages were made to people that didn’t really qualify for a conventional loan.’
In some cases, buyers put no money down, or didn’t have to prove their income.
‘The Alt-A mortgages are probably closer to a more reasonable guideline,’ Cross said. ‘These people have a better chance of making the payments on the initial terms of the loan.’ Other observers describe Alt-A as ‘one rung above subprime.’
The problem, Cross said, crops up when the terms of the Alt-A loan start to reset.
‘They may have had the ability to make payments when the payments covered interest only, and the payment was $2,000. But when the adjustment occurs, and the interest rate goes up, and you include principal (as well as interest), you may raise the payment to $3,000. And people may not have the ability or the will to make these payments.
‘We’re being told by the banks that we work with that there may be as many as 2,000 (more) foreclosures coming on the market in the next three months over the Sacramento region,’ Cross said. ‘And that’s going to have an impact on the market.
‘We think we’re going to start seeing some foreclosures occurring in higher price ranges, up to $400,000 or higher,’ he added. ‘It’s been mostly in the lower price ranges so far. We think it’s going to move up.
‘The unknown factor is how many people will have the ability to make the payments, but find themselves in a situation where the mortgage is greater than the value of the property,’ Cross said. ‘They may make a decision to walk away from the property, with the idea that they can escape the high payments, and rent a property for considerably less.
‘During the five-year period of time when their credit will be very limited, they can try to save the money they would have paid on the mortgage’ - and eventually re-enter the housing market.
A concentration of empty, foreclosed homes can have a negative effect on a community. According to reports by the BBC and other news agencies, many homeowners in the Stockton/Tracy area have ‘walked away’ from their mortgages, and moved to less-costly rented homes closer to their jobs in the Bay Area, saving on gas.
Levi Leipheimer of Santa Rosa, who finished third in the 2007 Tour de France, is a two-time winner of the Amgen Tour of California. The nine-day race will start its second stage in Davis on Sunday, Feb. 15, organizers confirmed today. AEG/Courtesy photo